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United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) China together with the China Population and Development Research Center (CPDRC) of the National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC), organized the International Seminar on Population Projection Methodology from 28-29 October in Beijing. About 50 participants including officials from UNFPA China Office, NHFPC and CPDRC, national experts as well as international experts from UNFPA Headquarters in New York and the Asia and Pacific Regional Office of UNFPA in Bangkok, the United Nations Population Division, China Academy of Social Science, Peking University, Renmin University, Capital University of Economics and Business, China Center for Disease Prevention and Control attended the meeting.

During the seminar, the latest developments related to population projection methodology were presented and discussed:  Dr. Gu Danan from Population Estimates and Projections, Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs presented the World Population Prospects: 2015 revision, with a particular reference to China; Dr. Edilberto Loaiza, Sr. Monitoring and Evaluation Adviser from Technical Division, UNFPA introduced the use of population projections to decompose population growth; Prof. Chen Wei from the Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University, on behalf of a technical team to compare international and national projection software headed by Prof. Zhai Zhenwu presented the International and national population projection software; Prof. Yi Zeng from National School of Development and Director of Center for Healthy Aging and Development Study, Peking University, presented the Family Households Projection and Future Trends of Home-Based Care Needs/Costs for Disabled Elders in China; and Mr. Zhou Maigeng, Deputy Director from the Center for Chronic Diseases, China CDC, presented the Mortality assessment and mortality related projections.

The Technical Review Meeting was organized to discuss the soundness of PADIS-INT in conducting population projection. At the meeting, Professor Chen Wei from the Center for Population and Development Studies at Renmin University presented a technical comparison of PADIS-INT versus other international established projection software such as Spectrum and Mortpak. Specially invited experts presented and deliberated on their personal evaluation of PADIS-INT, including both the strengths it has as well as the issues requiring further improvements. In the end, the participating experts acknowledged that PADIS-INT, as a web-based general-purpose population projection software program, meets the standards of established population projection solutions. Based on the group review from such dimensions as functional sophistication, convenience in operation, user-friendliness and accuracy of projected results, PADIS-INT was considered to basically meet these requirements. With further enchantments in user friendliness, it has the potential of being used in more countries. 


During the meetings, Mr. Hu Hongtao, Commissioner, Department of International Cooperation, NHFPC congratulated the achievements of PADIS-INT in recent years and highlighted the important role of population projection in population planning.   Mr. Arie Hoekman, Representative of UNFPA China Office pointed out that this meeting is being organized in a good timing as UNFPA China is preparing for the next country programme of cooperation with China during 2016-2020, including a component related to PADIS-INT both for use in China to support national population and development planning and outside China in south-south collaboration.